1) Overall = 1 in 345.
Our latest odds are 1 in 138.
Latest Las Vegas odds are 1 in 69.
2) Pre-launch T- 48 Hours to T- 0 = 1 in 24,440.
3) Early launch T- 0 to T+ 143 seconds = 1 in 1,590.
4) T+ 143 to T+ 206 Nothing will go wrong (NASA).
5) T+ 206 to Through to the point where Cassini has escaped from Earth
orbit T+ 689 = 1 in 450. This is the worst time because at T+ 206 seconds
Cassini is already 68.56 miles high and if something goes wrong then
it will be like an inadvertent reentry scenirio.
6) Gravity Assist Swingby Earth = 1 in 1,315,789.4
This is the # the Press loves to (mis)quote, implying it is the overall release
#. When 1 in 345 is the #.
8) Feel Lucky? NASA has 11 more nuclear space missions scheduled
from 1997 - 2009.
10) Will NASA wait till the wind blows out toward the Atlantic Ocean
(away from land and the 2.3 million people in the 6 county region surrounding
the Cape) before trying to launch the Cassini mission? The Cassini mission
has a 41 day launch window (October 6th through November 15th - with the
best time for NASA closer to October 6th) but only 19% of the time (8 days)
the wind blows away from land (NW, WNW, W, WSW, SW). Out of these 8
days probably half, or 4 days the winds will be blowing with the best direction
and speed in case of a failure during liftoff with the Plutonium possibly
being released. Will NASA wait for one of these 4 best days before trying
to launch Cassini?
No They Won't. NASA didn't wait for the 1989 Galileo mission with
49.25 pounds of Plutonium. The winds at the time of launching were from the
South at 8 knots. If there was a release of
Plutonium, this would have spread it right up the coast. For
Ulysses with 25 pounds of Plutonium, the winds were from the East
at 14 knots. This is about as bad as it can get, a release would go right
back over everyone on land. If there was a high enough release, the
Plutonium could maybe even reach Mickey Mouse himself, 50 miles due West
in Orlando.